Sunday, December 30, 2007

On Robert D. Kaplan

Saya uztel minii post-uud dotor publish bolooguy nayan yum bainaa. Yur ni bodood baihad bi Attention Deficit Disorder-tey yum shig baigaan. Baahan yum hiij hiij baisnaa genet ogt uur zuil sataaraad unuuhuu bur martaj orhino. Magadguy ene utgaaraa ADD-gee "Person from Porlock"-oor tuluuluulj ch boloh yum gsn :P Za ene marzganah yahav. Saya ali 10 sard bichij baisan neg bichlegee olloo. Uul ni duusaaguy l baigaa yum baina, gehdee yahav shine onoos umnu neg ch gesen guitseegeeguy, duusgaaguy zuileesee salya gesendee uuniig post hiilee.

Ungursun jil Bulgariin doloo honog buriin "Panorama" nevtruulgiin hutlugch Boyko Vassilev-iin yariltslaga deer Yugoslaviin Dainii uyer Bill Clinton yagaad Bosnia-d intervention hiihees tatgalzsan talaar neg sonirholtoy tuuh sonsson yum. Vassilev-iin helsneer tuhain uyedee Clinton-d aide-uud ni Robert Kaplan-ii "Balkan Ghosts: A Journey Through History" nomiig unshihiig sanal bolgoson buguud Clinton unshuutaa het avtaj Balkan dahi olon ethnic group-uud tuuhiihee turshid bie biee hyadsaar irsen, dunduur ni hen negen oroltsood yamar ch nemerguy gesen sanaag ni uuriihuu gadaad bodlogod shuud tusgaj ugchee. Yavan yavsaar suuld Bosnia-d intervention hiilguy heden myangan hunii ami nasiig nudee aniad unguruulsen hereg suhugduhud sonirholtoy ni zarim negen alban tushaaltnuud buruug unuuh nom ruu chihsen marzan yavdal bolson. Uund emzeglesen Kaplan daraa daraagiihaa nomuudad bolon WSJ, NYTimes, Atlantic Monthly zereg sonin setguuluud deerh op-ed-uud deeree damjuulan uundee neleed gemshsen uguulberuudiig gargaj tavisan baidag--"Reading Too Much Into a Book" .

Deehne Itaewon havitsaa gadaaduudiin nutag butsah uyedee nomoo hyamdhan zarchihdag nomiin delguur dotroos uhaj baigaad Robert Kaplan-ii "Eastward to Tartary: Travels in the Balkans, the Middle East, and the Caucasus" gesen nomiig ni olj avav. Kaplan-ii talaarh medleg maani umnu ni tuunii bichsen gants hoyor niitleluudiig hicheel deer unshij baisnaas hetrehguy bolovch deerh tuuh bolon nomiin gol aguulga boloh Balkan, Middle East, Caucasus-aar (minii huvid delhii deerh hamgiin sonirholtoy heseg) hiisen aylaliin temdeglel ni bagtsan baisan tul karmaniihaa hediig shavhaad oroin hoolon deeree belen goimongoor hodoodoo huurav. Gehdee hamgiin chuhal ni ene nomiig unshaad chuham yagaad Clinton shig mundag hun (minii huvid Amerikiin tuuhen deh hamgiin mundag yurunhiilugch!) haihramjguy shiidver gargatlaa het avtsaniig ni oilgoh shig. Kaplan nomoo bichihdee Thomas Friedman shig Boeing 747 huluglun delhiin hamgiin unetey tansag zochid buudluudad buuj, heden multi-billionaire businessmen-tey uulzsaniigaa tuhain gazriin niit humuusiin bodol sanaa meteer unshigchdad oilguulaad baidagguy. Harin orond ni backpacking hiij, nutgiin jiriin ard irged bolon ter bolgon gadniihnii hevlel medeelliin anhaarald urtuud baidagguy tuhain gazartaa mash nuluutey intellectual-uudtay (manaihaar bol Baabar shig humuus yum uu daa) uulzaj, bodliig ni sonsch, hamtdaa zuu tataj, ter ch buu hel change deer ochij gar deerees munguu soliulna. Deerees ni Kaplanii tuuhiin medleg uneheer mundag. Yalanguya Middle East (uuruu Israel-iin army-d alba haasan Jew), Ottoman Empire, Huiten Dainii uyeiin uls turiin talaarh medleg, tuuniigee nomon deeree engiin ugeer mash goyo logic-toygoor holboj bas tailbarlaj uguh ni bishirmeer.

Robert Kaplan-ii "Eastward to Tartary"-d bidend uursudduu surgamj bolgoj avahaar zuils olon baina. CCCP-iin muhliin daraah Orosiin imperialismaas-aas zugtahiig husevch umnu taldaa tuuhen zanalt daisantay, baruuntay dotnosyo geheer dan gants gazar zuin bairshlaas gadna soyoliin huvid holdood baidag Bolgar, Ruminii tuuh bidend negiig uguulne. Nuguu talaasaa baigaliin asar ih baylagtay bolovch avilga heel hahuulid idegdsenii ulmaas ediin zasgiin atsan shalaand orchihson Caucasus-iin "ah duu socialist" ornuud maani ch bidend tom hicheel boloh uchirtay (gehdee unuudur magadguy harin ch esregeeree bid tedend hicheel boltsgooj baij medeh yum). Yamartay ch "Eastward to Tartary"-g unshaad Kaplan-iig Mongoliin talaar iimerhuu nom bichsen bol gadnii neg ch gesen hund bidniig unen zuvuur taniulahguy yu gej bodoj baisnaa nuugaad yahav (gehdee yagaad ch yum minii dotor Kaplan Mongoliig yamar negen baidlaar sonirhoh l yostoy doo gesen bodol baisan).

Harin az bolj hed honogiin umnu COEX dahi nomiin delguur dotor tenej yavaad ogt sanamsarguygeer "Imperial Grunts: On the Ground with the American Military, from Mongolia to the Philippines to Iraq and Beyond" gesen odoogoos jiliin umnu garsan nomiig ni olj avav. Ene nomond bichseneer bol Kaplan Mongold ireheer barah uu bur manai urd hiliin zastavuudaar orj shimiin arhi erguulj, honinii mah ogtloj baigaad yavsan baih yum. Uuniigee tereer Mongoliin ungursun bolood odoo uyed tulgarch baigaa berhsheeluudees gadna Amerikiin Mongold barimtlah gadaad bodlogo geh met chuhal asuudluudiin zavsar havchuulj salahiin argaguy sonirholtoygoor uguulj. Nuguuteyguur ene bichlegiin helbereesee bolood ch yum uu dotor ni bichigdsen zuils mash candid.

Mongolian troops serving in Iraq

Gehdee end tuunii Mongoliin talaar bichsen zuilsiig neg burchlen analysis hiine gevel tsag hugatsaa neleed oroh baisan tul unshsan humuus uursduu dugneltee hiitsgeeh baih geed orhiyo. Harin bi end minii huvid hamgiin chuhal gej bodson heden ishleluudiig avahaar shiidlee:

"When another officer asked us if the U.S. would defend Mongolia, as it had Kuwait in 1991, Wilhelm replied bluntly, 'Probably not. The U.S. can only help Mongolia defend itself. That's the reality.' Wilhelm loved Mongolia, but his primary concern was U.S. interests, and he was honest about that."

"But greater than the fear of a strong China among Mongolians was the fear of an internally weak China, or a breakup of China even."

"[Mongolian-Chinese border] was a border that mattered. It would matter more as China loomed over the horizon--beyond the present conflagrations in the Middle East--as the greatest conventional challenge to American power. Yet America's response was often subtle, as I would see."

"When Wilhelm arrived in Mongolia, in 2001, U.S.-Mongolian defense relations had no focus. All that existed was a hodgepodge of unrelated aid and training programs that had not been staffed out in detail in Washington or in Ulan Bator. Mongolia's post-communist military had no realistic vision of its future. It wanted a modern air force but wasn't sure what such an air force would do, or how it would be sustained, or its aircraft maintained. Wilhelm, with the active support of Ambassador John Dinger, quickly provided a sense of purpose. He and Dinger developed a "three pillars" strategy for the country and persuaded the Mongolian military to sign on. The three pillars are:
1. Securing Mongolia's borders not against a conventional military threat from China (such security would be impossible) but against illegal border incursions, criminal activities to finance terrorism, and transnational terrorism itself, particularly by the Uighur separatists of western China. Aided by the Chechens and the broad militant Islamic network, Uighur extremists represent the future of terrorism in Central Asia.
2. Preparing the Mongolian military to play an active role in international peacekeeping, in order to raise its profile in global forums and thus provide Mongolia with diplomatic protection from its large, rapacious neighbors. The dispatch of Mongolian troops to post-Saddam Iraq elicited shrill cries of annoyance from Russia and China, but it was the first building block of this pillar.
3. Improving Mongolia's capacity to respond to natural disasters, most notably drought."

"Mongolia, with one of the world's lowest population densities, is being threatened demographically by the latest of Eurasia's great historical migrations—an urban Chinese civilization is determined to move north. China—which ruled much of Mongolia from the end of the seventeenth century until the early twentieth century, during the Manchu period—covets the oil, coal, uranium, and empty grasslands of its former possession. Given that a resurgent China has already absorbed Tibet, Macao, and Hong Kong, reabsorbing Mongolia—a country that on the map looks like a big piece of territory bitten away from China—seems almost irresistibly a part of China's geopolitical intentions."

"'Mongolia is a vast country completely surrounded by two anti-American empires, Russia and China,' S. Galsanjamts, a member of Mongolia's national-security council, told me recently. 'It is therefore a symbol of the kind of independence America wants to encourage in the world.' Today, more often than not, the United States is encouraging that sort of independence not by intervening militarily on a grand scale but, rather, by placing a few quietly effective officers in key locations around the globe. "

"With Mongolia's eastern border only 500 miles from North Korea, and with the strategic environment unpredictable and fast-changing, an air base here could be an important asset."

"Nobody was thinking of transforming Choir into an American base, the way it had once been a Soviet one. Rather, for a relatively small amount of money the runway and a building or two might be repaired and kept up, so that American planes and Air Force personnel could use them at any time."

"'We should be careful of our own ambitions,' I said. 'We don't want to end up like the Soviets.'

'There is nothing we need to build here," he answered, "except relationships.'"

Hervee ene nom oldoh bolomjguy bol The Atlantic deer 2004 onii 3 sard garsan Robert Kaplan-ii The Man Who Would Be Khan gesen niitleliig ni unshihiig zuvluyu. Nomon deerh Mongoliin talaarh heseg barag ter chigeeree bii.

Addendum: from "Supremacy by Stealth" by Robert Kaplan

In formerly communist Mongolia, U.S. Army Colonel Tom Wilhelm, a fluent speaker of Russian who studied at Leningrad State University, is an adviser to the local military. With Wilhelm's help, Mongolia has reoriented its defense strategy toward international peacekeeping—as a means of gaining allies in global forums against its rapacious neighbors, Russia and China. The planned dispatch of a Mongolian contingent to help patrol postwar Iraq was the result of what one good man—in this case, Wilhelm—was able to accomplish on the ground. I recently followed him around on an inspection tour of Mongolia's Gobi Desert border with China. We slept in local military outposts, rode Bactrian camels, and spent hours in conversation with mid-level Mongolian officers over meals of horsemeat and camel's milk. It is through such activities that relationships are built and allies are gained in an era when anyplace can turn out to be strategic.

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5 comments:

Anonymous said...

mash sonirholtoi um, friedmanii flatiin tuhaid ehnii hesegees busad ni demii zuil sanagdsan, buun uls tur

Anonymous said...

hi, jaalaa
saihan amarch baina uu ?
Shine jiliin beleg bolgoj heden zurag albumd chin naasan shuu za, :)

Misha

tuya said...
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