Detour through Abstraction

Applied economic theory offers some analogies with engineering sciences. The starting point is a concrete problem, either already identified or gleaned from observing reality or listening to decision-makers, public or private. Then follows a detour through abstraction. The essence of the problem is extracted in order to focus on its key aspects. In this simplification process lies much of the difficulty of the exercise; for tractability, the researcher cannot take everything into consideration. (S)he must select what is important and sort out what is anecdotal (i.e., its omission has little chance of changing the analysis). The experience of the researcher and discussions with practitioners are very useful at this stage, although ultimately a study of the robustness to underlying assumptions is highly desirable. Then, the model can be tested: econometrically if past data are available, and in the lab or in the field as well. One cannot underestimate the interaction between theory and empirics: empirical work needs theory, both to guide it and to make it useful for policy. Theory needs empirical work to strengthen the confidence in policy recommendations and also to suggest key omitted ingredients.

Jean Tirole Biographical

Getting Things Done

A lot of public policy is about the art of the possible. Compromise is not necessarily a dirty word.

Ultimately, I hope you have a passion for getting stuff done. That’s the real challenge – beyond what you’ve read in books, written in papers, the numbers crunched, the theories devised and tested. Because in the end, it is about putting those technical skills to work to get things done.

Many public officials seem content to hold posts, be part of the flow of events, analyze and comment, attend the meetings.

Be a doer. Keep your eye on achieving results. On accomplishing things.

Robert Zoellick's Address at 2012 PRGS Commencement

Feeling Right About It

I briefly flirted with the idea of dropping out of school and enlisting in the military—after all, I was a democrat in philosophy as well as party; I didn’t feel entitled to escape even a war I had come to oppose. I talked to Lee Williams about it. He said that I’d be crazy to quit school, that I should keep doing my part to end the war, that I wouldn’t prove anything by being one more soldier, perhaps one more casualty. Rationally, I could understand that and I went on about my business, but I never felt quite right about it. After all, I was the child of a World War II veteran. I respected the military, even if I thought many of those in charge were clueless, with more guts than brains. So began my personal bout with guilt, one that was fought by many thousands of us who loved our country but hated the war.

I always felt bad about escaping the risks that had taken the lives of so many of my generation whose claim to a future was as legitimate as mine. Over the years—as governor, when I was in charge of the Arkansas National Guard, and especially after I became President—the more I saw of America’s military, the more I wished I’d been a part of it when I was young, though I never changed my feelings about Vietnam.

from Bill Clinton - “My Life”

The Possibility of a Different World

I asked Ilves what created the room for imagination in Estonia. He suggested that it was Finnish television. During the period of Soviet occupation from 1944 to 1991, many Estonians were able to rig up receivers to watch broadcasts from their next-door neighbors, which remained unoccupied, albeit terrorized, by the Soviets. Finnish and Estonian languages are mutually intelligible, and this meant that Estonians could watch Finnish news. This wasn’t all, though, Ilves pointed out: they could also watch “Dallas,” “Dynasty,” “Knight Rider,” and other American shows, in English with Finnish subtitles. (This was also a great way to learn English.) Ilves is no fan of American television shows from the nineteen-eighties, but he appreciates what they symbolized for the people watching them behind the Iron Curtain. They meant that an entirely different world was possible. Estonians, it seems, still know that, and this spurs the imagination.

Why Estonia Was Poised to Handle a Pandemic by Masha Gessen

Addendum: "Role of the Beatles in the Mongolian Democracy"

Most Real Thought Must Wait

War’s intensity is a great catalyst for reflection, but few combatants can afford the luxury. Most real thought must wait until the shooting stops. I wish I could say I took strength in combat from poetry or prayer or love, but I didn’t. I was concerned with more prosaic things: studying maps, planning missions, and cleaning weapons. When I had a few minutes free, I slept.

"When Yellow Ribbons and Flag-Waving Aren't Enough" - Capt. Nate Fick

Can Faith be Reasonable?

[A]s far as understanding of God and thus the concrete practice of religion is concerned, we are faced with an unavoidable dilemma. Is the conviction that acting unreasonably contradicts God's nature merely a Greek idea, or is it always and intrinsically true? I believe that here we can see the profound harmony between what is Greek in the best sense of the word and the biblical understanding of faith in God. Modifying the first verse of the Book of Genesis, the first verse of the whole Bible, John began the prologue of his Gospel with the words: "In the beginning was the λόγος". This is the very word used by the emperor: God acts, σὺν λόγω, with logos. Logos means both reason and word - a reason which is creative and capable of self-communication, precisely as reason. John thus spoke the final word on the biblical concept of God, and in this word all the often toilsome and tortuous threads of biblical faith find their culmination and synthesis. In the beginning was the logos, and the logos is God, says the Evangelist. The encounter between the Biblical message and Greek thought did not happen by chance. The vision of Saint Paul, who saw the roads to Asia barred and in a dream saw a Macedonian man plead with him: "Come over to Macedonia and help us!" (cf. Acts 16:6-10) - this vision can be interpreted as a "distillation" of the intrinsic necessity of a rapprochement between Biblical faith and Greek inquiry.

Pope Benedict XVI's Regensburg Address (2006)

A Case for Trade War

Gamesa of Spain was the wind turbine market leader in China when Beijing mandated in 2005 that 70 percent of each wind turbine installed in China had to be manufactured inside the country. The company trained more than 500 suppliers in China to manufacture practically every part in its turbines. It set up a plant to assemble them in the city of Tianjin. Other multinational wind turbine manufacturers did the same.

The Obama administration questioned the policy as a violation of World Trade Organization rules and China withdrew it, but by then it was too late. Chinese state-controlled enterprises had begun to assemble turbines using the same suppliers. China is now the world’s biggest market for wind turbines, and they are mostly made by Chinese companies.

A somewhat similar industrial evolution occurred soon after in solar energy. China required that its first big municipal solar project only use solar panels that were at least 80 percent made in China. Companies rushed to produce in China and share technology.

The Chinese government also heavily subsidized the manufacture of solar panels, mostly for export. Chinese companies ended up producing most of the world’s solar panels.

How China Obtains American Trade Secrets

A Different Education

To understand Solzhenitsyn, one has to understand Ivan Denisovich, the character, and what he stands for. For his hero Solzhenitsyn did not choose a member of the liberal intelligentsia, who filled the Soviet camps in those days. In fact, Solzhenitsyn had a rather disdainful attitude toward liberals. He considered them people with a backbone that was either too fragile or too elastic. His hero was not a rebel against the camp regime, someone who considered that regime to be abnormal and contradictory to common sense. Ivan Denisovich has accepted the camp as given, a stage set on which the is merely an actor who must play a part, whether he likes the set or not. Ivan Denisovich's main goal is to survive. Therefore, he does not waste too much energy on the high-flown discussions of the intellectuals in the camp barracks, and listens to them only halfheartedly.

[...] What can you cut with talk of art? Ivan Denisovich is much more interested in the tangible tools needed for survival, and he is careful with the smallest trifle that could help him. He hides a spoon inside his felt boot; he keeps a crust of bread wrapped in a white rag so that he can wipe every last bit of gruel from his bowl.

Ivan Denisovich is surrounded by people who are much better educated than he is. Captain Buinovsky, for instance, still speaks to people as if he were their commander, teaching them not to pick up butts from the ground and smoke them, as it was unsanitary and could lead to contracting syphilis from the original smoker. Yet all his virtues did not help the captain or make him any smarter, for he ended up in solitary anyway. And what about the three camp artists, Ivan Denisovich reasons, what good are all their diplomas? Just to touch up numbers on camp clothes?

Ivan Denisovich has a different education--he knows how to stay out of solitary and how to hide a piece of hacksaw blade in his mitten. In the camp, an extra piece of bread acquired by hook or by crook is the only diploma of higher education that counts. Everything that takes place in the square of the camp zone under the theatrical lighting of the ruthless projectors beating down from the watchtower is the stage play in which Ivan Denisovich feels he has the leading role. The philosophizing intellectuals who surround him are helpless in matters of daily life and play only marginal roles.

from Yevgeny Yevtushenko's introduction to Alexander Solzhenitsyn's One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich.

Хан богд хайрхан оршвой

Богдо-Ул. Николай Рерих: картины (1927 г.), репродукция №2

"Хан богд уулын ар бие, Хатан Туул голын хойд эрэг хавьд миний бие бага насаа өнгөрүүлсэн юм аа."

- Дипломатч Д.Эрдэмбилэг

the magnificent Bogdo ula—the true natural park of Mongolia, where since the eighteenth century the hewing of wood and hunting have been strictly prohibited. The mountain is considered holy and in the times of the Incarnate Lama rulers of Mongolia, offerings were made to it twice a year. The cult was begun in 1778 A.D. when a petition was presented to the throne, on behalf of the Urga authorities, requesting the Imperial Court to legalize the cult of the sacred mountain. The petition was based on the belief that Chinghiz Khan was born at the foot of the Bogdo ula. The petition was granted and the Emperor was pleased to grant an Imperial Decree ordering the sending of a proscribed quantity of incense sticks and pieces of silk from Peking twice a year.

- from George N. Roerich's Trails to Inmost Asia

Generally, these four mountains are constantly remembered, as Mongols, wherever they happen to be, offer them the first best (deej) bit of any notable food or drinks, flicking tiny amounts into the air in the direction of the mountains. Many people have the idea that these mountains have, or in some way ‘are’ ruling spirits of the surrounding land. Each mountain has its own likes: Bayan Zurkh accepts all kinds of food and alcohol, but Chingeltei likes sweet things, Songino takes alcohol, and Bogd Uul will only accept products made of milk.

- from Caroline Humphrey's "Avgai Khad: theft and social trust in post-socialist Mongolia"

Энэ зун манайх Богд уулын Богинын аманд зусланд гарсан юм. Уржнан зун Бага тэнгэрийн амны адагт, ноднин Хүүшийн аманд, энэ жил Богинын аманд гээд л Богд уулаа тойроод л байдаг. Таксины буудал дээр бараг цаг илүү хүлээж байж арай гэж нэг унаа залгалаа. Нутгийн салхины үнэрийн сайхныг яана. Нар шингэж байсан цаг. Богд уулын орой Цэцээ гүн, Ширээтийн хад тод улбартан, дээр нь гүн хөх тэнгэр цэлийгээд дотор уужрам. Богинын аманд дахь гэрийнхээ гадаа ямбий "Победа"-аар харжигнуулан очиж буулаа. Салхнид яйжийсан муухан гэрийн маань яндангаар Богд уулын хуурай мөчрийн оч хаялан байна. "Миний гурав хөөрхий галтай л байгаа юм байна даа" гэж бодтол өөрийн эрхгүй нүдэнд нулимс гүйлгэнэж, ам умалзаад ирлээ.

Сэтгэл намайг дийлнэ
Сэлүүхэн тал дуудна
Богдхан ууландаа ирлээ
Борхон гэртээ заларлаа

- Сэнгийн Эрдэнийн "Халхын заяат харгуй минь"

The raw nerves

It is tempting to see Naipaul as a blimpish figure, aping the manners of British bigots; or as a fussy Brahmin, unwilling to eat from the same plates as lower castes. Both views miss the mark. Naipaul’s fastidiousness had more to do with what he called the “raw nerves” of a displaced colonial, a man born in a provincial outpost of empire, who had struggled against the indignities of racial prejudice to make his mark, to be a writer, to add his voice to what he saw as a universal civilization. Dirty towels, bad service, and the wretchedness of his ancestral land were insults to his sense of dignity, of having overcome so much.

"V.S. Naipaul, Poet of the Displaced" by Ian Buruma

A Case for Wearing a Knit Tie

Scott Schuman always says that clothing is a medium of personal expression. If that is the case, it means one dresses as much for oneself as for the others. Through our choice of clothes, ultimately, we strive to signal certain particularities about ourselves to the person who is seeing or interacting with us.

Then what kind of a message does a normal tie convey? As a corollary to the sense of formality that such clothing accessory evokes, it tends to raise a certain shield between you and your counterpart. It is as if the words that the other person saying would immediately reflect back on the shiny silk of your tie before it even reaches you.

In contrast, I find the rugged surface of knit ties to be warm and absorbing. The cosy uncle-like quality aside, these ties quietly gesture a refuge, air to breath—someone with whom you can talk to and trust amidst the sea of social normativity for silky superficiality.

Oбыкновенная плюха

1. Чрезвычайную хрупкость человеческой культуры, цивилизации. Человек становился зверем через три недели — при тяжелой работе, холоде, голоде и побоях.

4. Понял, что человек позднее всего хранит чувство злобы. Мяса на голодном человеке хватает только на злобу — к остальному он равнодушен

7. Понял, что человек стал человеком потому, что он физически крепче, цепче любого животного — никакая лошадь не выдерживает работы на Крайнем Севере.

10. Увидел, каким веским аргументом для интеллигента бывает обыкновенная плюха.

16. Понял, что можно жить злобой.

17. Понял, что можно жить равнодушием.

20. И физические и духовные силы мои оказались крепче, чем я думал, — в этой великой пробе, и я горжусь, что никого не продал, никого не послал на смерть, на срок, ни на кого не написал доноса.

31. Узнал, что мир надо делить не на хороших и плохих людей, а на трусов и не трусов. 95% трусов при слабой угрозе способны на всякие подлости, смертельные подлости.

Варлам Шаламов - Что я видел и понял в лагере

"1988" by Lachlan Mackinnon

In the last full year of the second Reagan
administration, all seemed setting fair
for freedom. Noble dreams were coming true.

Zeks were trekking homeward from the camps
in their first fours and fives to find what faces
waited in villages now parts of cities.

From Petersburg to Vladivostok, troubled
small people were enjoying making trouble
for the brute, the berk and the bureaucrat.

They would soon learn about insurance scams,
the speed with which poems give way to porn,
the greed that keeps the market cycle turning,

but this was spring in Europe, cleaning house
with windows open to the songs of birds.
I’m grateful to have lived at such a time

and sorry truth exacts that I add this:
eighty-eight was also the last full year
of the red threat that kept our bankers honest.

Finally, somebody who understood it all.

Returning to where the same traps awaited them

It's a bit boring actually

Getting the combinations right

TYLER COWEN: Let’s say you’re trying to select people for your Thiel fellowships, or maybe to work for one of your companies, or to start a new company with. Just you, Peter Thiel, as a judge of talent, what trait do you look for in that person that is being undervalued by others? The rest of the world out there is way too conformist, so there must then be unexploited profit opportunities in finding people. If you’re less conformist, which I’m very willing to believe, indeed would insist on that being the case, what is it you look for?

PETER THIEL: It’s very difficult to reduce it to any single traits, because a lot of what you’re looking for, are these almost Zen-like opposites. You want people who are both really stubborn and really open-minded. That’s a little bit contradictory. You want people who are idiosyncratic and really different, but then who can work well together in teams. And so, this is again, maybe not 180 degrees opposite, but like 175 degrees.

Peter Thiel on Stagnation, Innovation, and What Not to Call your Company

Normally we expect opposite traits to be mutually exclusive: a normal person can’t be both rich and poor at the same time, for instance. But it happens all the time to founders: startup CEOs can be cash poor but millionaires on paper. They may oscillate between sullen jerkiness and appealing charisma. Almost all successful entrepreneurs are simultaneously insiders and outsiders. And when they do succeed, they attract both fame and infamy.

from Peter Thiel's Zero to One (Chapter 14: The Founder's Paradox)

J'avoue j'en ai bavé pas vous?

Кому бублик, а кому – дырка от бублика

Вместо свободы нам раздали ваучеры. Так поделили великую страну: нефть, газ… Не знаю, как выразиться… Кому бублик, а кому – дырка от бублика. Ваучеры надо было вкладывать в акции предприятий, но мало кто это умел. При социализме делать деньги не учили. Отец приносил в дом какие-то рекламки: “Московской недвижимости”, “Нефть-Алмаз-Инвеста”, “Норильского никеля”… Спорили с мамой на кухне, и кончилось это тем, что они продали все какому-то типу в метро. Купили мне модную кожаную куртку. Весь навар. В этой куртке я в Америку приехала…

Светлана Алексиевич - "Русский разговор в Чикаго” из Время секонд-хэнд

Цол дагаж бяр?

Learning the job, in fairness, is a big task for any new President. “Regardless of his prior training, nothing he has done will have prepared him for all the facets of that job,” Richard Neustadt, the great scholar of the American Presidency, wrote in “Presidential Power,” his influential study, in 1960. All Presidents, he argued, enter office ignorant, innocent, and arrogant—liabilities it can take two, three, or even six years for them to overcome. Some never do.

"Can President Trump Learn on the Job?" by Jeff Shesol

It is an illusion to believe that leaders gain in profundity while they gain experience. The convictions that leaders have formed before reaching high office are the intellectual capital they will consume as long as they continue in office. The public life of every political figure is a continual struggle to rescue an element of choice from the pressure of circumstance.

from Henry Kissinger's White House Years (Boston, 1979), p.54

On Traveling

Each trip (to Egypt, Greece, Indonesia, Peru, Morocco, Burma, India, Russia) was thoroughly prepared for with advance reading and orderly itineraries, and then preserved—usually by his wife—in photographs of buildings and cities: pyramids, temples, mosques, streets, columns, ruins [...]

One of my father-in-law’s busy, ephemeral projects fell out of a book about Greek history. A single sheet of paper, with notes written in his careful hand. The date was 2/1/95, and the notes were preparation for a trip to Greece: “History of Ancient Greece. Jean Hatzfeld and André Aymard, N.Y., Norton 1966.” Under this heading were lines in English:

• Greeks establish themselves during second millennium BC: Greece, Black Sea, Asia Minor, Islands, S. Italy.


• Common language and tradition but very divided. Hellas = culture, civiliz. (“Hellenes” does not come until 800 BC. “Greek” is Roman.)


• Geographic identity between Greece and Western Asia Minor: the sea is due to a subsidence which broke up a continent of recent formation and whose structure was very complicated—fjords, deep bays, mountains, capes, islands.

"Shelf Life: Packing up my father-in-law’s library." by James Wood

The one thing I really love about it, that maybe is a little bit weird, is I think that a lot of what is great about travel is focusing your attention on a place in a way that is not necessarily related, actually all the time, to being there.

Often times, when I’m traveling somewhere, part of why I learn so much about the place I’m going is that I’m thinking about it, I’m reading about it as I’m there watching it. A lot of it is the mustering of other kinds of attentional resources, watching movies, or documentaries, or consuming other kinds of culture from it before.

There is more than just the seeing. Sometimes people feel like the learning about a place is just going and seeing it. For me, I find that a lot of the benefits of travel are actually about things that I could have done even if I haven’t been there, but I would have never focused on in the same way, and with the same intensity, for the same period of time.

Ezra Klein on Media, Politics, and Models of the World